Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:44:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b36…61e6 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$7
other 15% −$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 21 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -8.9%
all 36 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -28.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage404d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 54¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $72 +$5 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $16 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $89 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $47 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $46 +$1 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $15 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 $0 -7%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? May 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 53¢ $28 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $50 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $50 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $27 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $24 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $51 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 29h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $48 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $48 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.08 · official $28.08 (match) · 121 history records