Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b37…478e weather 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%121W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$14
14 days+$17
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$11
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.5% -9.1% 86% 10% -6.5%
≤30d 79 -2.6% -11.9% 81% 20% -7.7%
≤90d 169 -6.1% -15.1% 72% 31% -11.1%
all 169 -6.1% -15.1% 72% 31% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 31% -11.1%
10% -23.2% 14% -19.6%
15% -30.6% 6% -27.4%
20% -37.4% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses121 / 48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)169 / 173
History coverage77d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? No 96¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? No 79¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? No 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 83¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? SELL No 9¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $8 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $9 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $35 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $36 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 85¢ $3 39h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $35 39h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 84¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $37 40h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.79 · official $37.79 (match) · 429 history records