Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1B 0x1b38…93ad sports 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+7%) realized +$37 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$31
14 days+$41
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$71
other 27% +$2
crypto 11% −$19
politics 4% −$7
tech 2% −$1
finance 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +8.0% -2.2% 33% 29% -4.4%
≤30d 50 +5.2% -4.8% 32% 28% -3.6%
≤90d 51 +3.1% -6.7% 31% 27% -3.8%
all 51 +3.1% -6.7% 31% 27% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 27% -3.8%
10% -15.6% 25% -13.0%
15% -23.8% 20% -21.4%
20% -31.2% 18% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)51 / 58
History coverage48d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+44%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Dalma Galfi 30¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? No 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Under 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $11 −$6 -60%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $12 −$1 -8%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $12 −$4 -30%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $12 −$4 -31%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $22 +$6 +25%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $12 +$2 +15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$10 -57%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $13 +$20 +149%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 −$2 -25%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $13 +$4 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $10 +$29 +284%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$6 +50%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$8 -48%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $12 −$6 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$8 -23%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $9 +$17 +183%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$6 +84%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 11 $10 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 +$3 +8%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$2 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $32 +$9 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $22 −$8 -38%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $9 −$1 -8%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $9 −$5 -62%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $19 −$6 -34%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$3 -26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $12 +$10 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $2 $0 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $5 −$2 -37%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $4 +$5 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $11 −$2 -20%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 29 $4 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 56¢ $10 16m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox $6 17m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox $8 18m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $11 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 67¢ $9 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 67¢ $5 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 30¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $11 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $9 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $11 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $11 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $12 6h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Los Angeles Dodgers $4 6h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers $11 6h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 28¢ $11 6h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 29¢ $12 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.06 · official $70.07 (match) · 164 history records