Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b40…f533 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$460 (+2%) realized +$453 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate70%54W / 23L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$180
14 days+$385
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$239
crypto 49% +$153
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -12.6% -20.9% 69% 13% -8.3%
≤30d 75 -4.3% -13.4% 71% 21% -7.8%
≤90d 75 -4.3% -13.4% 71% 21% -7.8%
all 77 -3.8% -12.9% 70% 22% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 22% -7.8%
10% -21.3% 17% -16.6%
15% -28.9% 12% -24.6%
20% -35.8% 8% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.01 per $1 lost it wins $4.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$1,207
Realized+$453
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses54 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage207d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $550 $551 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? No 98¢ 98¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $500 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,102 +$32 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $338 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,369 +$19 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $247 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,852 +$32 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,529 +$38 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $248 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $501 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $130 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,224 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $152 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $348 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $400 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$13 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $462 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $400 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,648 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$24 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,517 +$29 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,527 +$18 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 +$5 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $526 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$12 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $640 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $502 +$24 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,134 +$30 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$3 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $505 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,134 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $500 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $338 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $300 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $250 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $35 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $901 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $255 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,884 37h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $200 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $168 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $100 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,567 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $250 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $247 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $300 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $516 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $132 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $699 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $248 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $501 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,207.42 · official $1,207.42 (match) · 280 history records