Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b41…2c02 sports 1444 markets active 5h ago coverage 134d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$926 (-2%) realized −$926 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%536W / 904L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$477est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days−$63
14 days−$387
30 days−$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$924
other 2% +$32
world 0% −$21
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 43% -12.5%
≤30d 316 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 39% -13.5%
≤90d 1061 -4.1% -13.3% 37% 36% -13.3%
all 1440 -4.1% -13.3% 37% 37% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 37% -11.6%
10% -21.6% 36% -20.1%
15% -29.1% 35% -27.8%
20% -36.1% 33% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$24 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$926
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses536 / 904
Est. fees paid−$477
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1440 / 1444
History coverage134d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1440 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $24 +$22 +92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $30 +$54 +184%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $23 −$13 -59%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $22 +$51 +233%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$42 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$30 +152%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$34 +128%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$28 +99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$21 -73%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$18 +59%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$18 +89%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 −$19 -57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$27 +89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$31 +99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$30 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $24 +$56 +233%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$21 +83%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$25 -51%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$30 +172%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$24 +68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$37 +152%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$13 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$16 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$27 +109%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$29 +152%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY 31¢ $10 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 40¢ $6 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 40¢ $14 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 6¢ $3 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 6¢ $3 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 96¢ $46 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $12 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $10 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $2 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 15¢ $6 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 15¢ $14 8h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Spirit Academy 58¢ $31 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 55¢ $13 24h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 55¢ $17 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 21¢ $9 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 49¢ $23 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $73 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $22 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $92 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 54¢ $51 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 35¢ $30 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $20 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 25¢ $20 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 40¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $60 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 51¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $29.72 · 3500 history records