Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b41…0b56 crypto 1213 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (863 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,232 (+15%) realized +$1,230 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%721W / 621L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day862.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$969
other 10% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (863 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1342 -8.4% -17.2% 54% 50% -16.4%
≤30d 1342 -8.4% -17.2% 54% 50% -16.4%
≤90d 1342 -8.4% -17.2% 54% 50% -16.4%
all 1342 -8.4% -17.2% 54% 50% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover862.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 50% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 41% -24.4%
15% -32.3% 31% -31.7%
20% -39.0% 22% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$1,230
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses721 / 621
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1342 / 1213
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day862.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 75¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 79¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Up 8¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +355%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +355%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 3m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 6m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 42m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $0 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.14 · official $13.50 · 3500 history records