Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

1B 0x1b41…6a6d other 25 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$39 (+18%) realized +$39 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate32%8W / 17L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day5.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)+30.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+44.1%	+30.4%	32%	32%	+5.6%
≤30d	25	+44.1%	+30.4%	32%	32%	+5.6%
≤90d	25	+44.1%	+30.4%	32%	32%	+5.6%
all	25	+44.1%	+30.4%	32%	32%	+5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.4%	32%	+5.6%
10%	+17.9%	32%	-4.5%
15%	+6.5%	24%	-13.7%
20%	-4.0%	20%	-22.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +78% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$5 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.38 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$39

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses8 / 17

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day5.8

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$34	−$9	-27%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	+$8	+157%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$2	+$5	+249%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$65	+1269%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$17	+$5	+28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$2	+$8	+384%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$20	+$6	+31%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-94%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 11	$6	+$29	+468%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 11	$6	−$6	-97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 11	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$29	−$1	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	53¢	$25	2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	71¢	$34	3h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	35¢	$13	15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	16h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	38¢	$7	18h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$70	2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$22	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	77¢	$17	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$2	3d
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	SELL Yes	50¢	$10	3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3	3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$26	4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	75¢	$20	4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records