Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b42…7cbe sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$303 (-15%) realized −$273 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$49
other 42% −$191
weather 7% −$78
crypto 4% +$9
finance 2% −$11
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.8% -53.7% 43% 29% -26.5%
≤30d 11 -19.0% -26.7% 45% 36% -27.7%
≤90d 20 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 45% -24.6%
all 42 -18.4% -26.2% 43% 40% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 40% -27.2%
10% -33.2% 36% -34.2%
15% -39.7% 29% -40.6%
20% -45.6% 26% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$32 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized−$273
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)42 / 51
History coverage254d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $113 $156 +$43 (+38%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $103 $108 +$5 (+5%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $99 $88 −$11 (-11%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 50¢ $79 $56 −$23 (-29%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+10%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 25¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$6 +31%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 27 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $79 +$19 +23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $117 +$5 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $4 +$7 +203%
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5) Jun 05 $28 −$27 -99%
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) Jun 04 $12 +$16 +129%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $93 −$91 -98%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5 May 25 $53 +$39 +73%
Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 2.5 May 24 $59 −$58 -99%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $40 +$73 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 1 Apr 08 $34 −$33 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 08 $46 −$11 -24%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Apr 08 $27 +$19 +72%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 Apr 06 $18 +$8 +46%
FC Andorra vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 4.5 Apr 06 $16 +$2 +14%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $9 +$7 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 28 $20 −$11 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on March 2 Mar 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 26 $10 +$17 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 25 $23 +$7 +32%
Estoril Praia vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $30 +$23 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $49 −$48 -100%
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $49 +$49 +100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bucks vs. Suns: O/U 216.5 Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $100 +$104 +104%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 2 Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 21 $50 +$82 +163%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Mar 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on March 2 Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 16? Oct 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 1h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $45 11h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 23h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 23h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 25h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $6 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 35¢ $15 5d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 75¢ $19 5d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $4 5d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 5d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 77¢ $21 5d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 77¢ $26 5d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $100 5d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 75¢ $22 5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 15¢ $11 14d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) SELL Team WE 99¢ $11 14d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 32¢ $4 14d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $49 15d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $92 15d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $116 15d
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $117 15d
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 69¢ $30 15d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $101 15d
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 15d
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-2.5) BUY Hong Kong SAR 59¢ $28 22d
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) SELL Cambodia 100¢ $28 23d
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5) BUY Cambodia 43¢ $12 23d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 48¢ $93 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.97 · official $500.02 (match) · 93 history records