Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b42…b90e crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate84%21W / 4L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,696per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$21
economics 20% −$9
tech 0% +$1
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 67% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 +3.2% -6.6% 78% 11% -9.6%
all 25 +2.6% -7.2% 84% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses21 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage179d
Avg bet$1,696
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 20 $8,692 −$11 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $8,667 −$9 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8,701 −$11 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 18 $8,700 −$11 -0%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? May 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on April 17? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? May 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 26 $4 $0 +9%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Mar 25 $1 $0 +11%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? Mar 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 25 $2 $0 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Feb 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 07 $3 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $7,406 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 23? Dec 31 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $68 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 23m
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3,552 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5,130 1h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8,692 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $8,658 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $5,494 6h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $3,174 6h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,690 30h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,701 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $8,689 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8,700 2d
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 25d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 25d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 25d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 64d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 65d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY Yes 92¢ $4 65d
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 87d
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 87d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 133d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 85¢ $2 133d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 133d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 156d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 156d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 156d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 170d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? SELL No 100¢ $7,413 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.08 · official $9.08 (match) · 53 history records