Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b44…be52 sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,430 (+22%) realized +$1,551 · open −$121
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$295
other 13% +$814
world 9% −$223
crypto 5% +$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +20.6% +9.1% 61% 48% +8.6%
≤30d 23 +20.6% +9.1% 61% 48% +8.6%
≤90d 23 +20.6% +9.1% 61% 48% +8.6%
all 23 +20.6% +9.1% 61% 48% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 48% +8.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 39% -1.8%
15% -10.9% 35% -11.3%
20% -19.6% 30% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$86 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$1,551
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Yes $295 $175 −$120 (-41%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $380 +$72 +19%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 +$6 +34%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $186 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $80 −$13 -16%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $159 −$22 -14%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $108 −$81 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $222 +$190 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$44 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $98 +$2 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $230 +$36 +16%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $57 +$148 +262%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $150 +$172 +115%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,138 +$48 +4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $201 +$183 +91%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $111 +$120 +108%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $9 −$3 -29%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $59 −$18 -30%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $29 −$17 -59%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,220 −$596 -49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $471 +$521 +111%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,066 +$446 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $40 11m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $38 13m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $310 16m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 16m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 69¢ $101 17m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $1 17m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $254 35m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $225 36m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $142 38m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes $22 38m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes $54 39m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 39¢ $86 40m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 16¢ $30 41m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 14¢ $106 41m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes $13 41m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes $27 41m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $86 49m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $56 49m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $57 50m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $126 56m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes $21 57m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes $51 58m
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 58m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $100 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $80 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.75 · official $278.08 · 95 history records