Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b44…699a crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,954 (-13%) realized −$1,954 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,713
7 days−$3,467
14 days−$3,467
30 days−$3,467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,226
crypto 39% −$1,129
sports 10% −$4
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -58.4% -62.4% 22% 19% -52.0%
≤30d 37 -58.4% -62.4% 22% 19% -52.0%
≤90d 37 -58.4% -62.4% 22% 19% -52.0%
all 78 -16.3% -24.3% 46% 40% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 40% -24.2%
10% -31.5% 37% -31.4%
15% -38.1% 26% -38.1%
20% -44.2% 19% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$140 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,954
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage175d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $385 +$98 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $533 +$652 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Egypt vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 27 $580 +$11 +2%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 27 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Jun 27 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $284 −$284 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Jun 27 $530 −$426 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $145 −$11 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $179 +$111 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$20 -76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $131 −$107 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $205 −$174 -85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $543 −$433 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $457 −$346 -76%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 26 $49 +$42 +86%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $499 −$471 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $128 +$115 +90%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $299 +$131 +44%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 04 $134 +$127 +95%
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 04 $91 +$84 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 28 $144 +$108 +75%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Saint Louis Billikens Jan 28 $150 −$106 -71%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-28? Jan 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 27 $220 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 26 $78 +$72 +92%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $171 +$58 +34%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 4.5 Jan 25 $115 +$56 +49%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $188 +$65 +35%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $312 +$276 +88%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $85 +$37 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $483 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $255 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $41 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $41 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $20 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 687 history records