Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b44…d8de sports 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (808 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$37,742 (+38%) realized +$37,742 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%193W / 226L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day808.4pace
Fees−$951est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$6,374
other 21% −$6,780
world 2% −$2,322
crypto 0% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (808 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 38% -12.2%
≤30d 419 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 38% -12.2%
≤90d 419 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 38% -12.2%
all 419 +18.7% +7.4% 46% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover808.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 38% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 29% -20.6%
15% -12.3% 23% -28.3%
20% -20.9% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$173 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$37,742
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses193 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$951
Open positions0
Markets (closed)419 / 419
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$240
Trades / day808.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 419 Trades
no open positions (143 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $404 +$296 +73%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $42 +$34 +80%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $181 +$146 +81%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $128 +$28 +22%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,572 +$2,194 +140%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 +$4 +47%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$4 +276%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $62 +$18 +29%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 +$1 +19%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 +$3 +25%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $245 +$249 +102%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $144 +$132 +92%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $254 +$32 +12%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$9 -89%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $338 −$195 -58%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 −$7 -70%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $131 −$131 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $131 −$130 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 $0 -30%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $13 −$2 -15%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $105 +$3 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $0 $0 +62%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $31 +$3 +10%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 +$4 +57%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $86 +$15 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $38 +$15 +40%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 +$63 +1585%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 +$24 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 +$246 +446%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $47 +$23 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$1 +54%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $124 +$13 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $87 −$68 -78%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $19 −$9 -48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,098 −$2,095 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 13¢ $0 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 11¢ $0 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 85¢ $4 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 82¢ $5 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 84¢ $24 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 79¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 58¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 59¢ $128 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 59¢ $1 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 59¢ $166 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 97¢ $97 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $16 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 59¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 16¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 24¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 21¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 96¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 96¢ $24 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $210 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $17 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $16 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 66¢ $67 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 42¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.20 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records