Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b47…d814 sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1515 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$552,217 (+51%) realized +$515,030 · open +$37,187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%29W / 51L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10,203per market
Trades / day1514.9pace
Fees−$2,715est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$374,354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$30,684
sports 17% +$60,348
world 1% +$3,005
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1515 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 31% -10.0%
≤30d 80 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 31% -10.0%
≤90d 80 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 31% -10.0%
all 80 -23.1% -30.4% 36% 31% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1514.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 31% -10.0%
10% -37.1% 28% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -43.2% 24% -26.5%
20% -48.7% 20% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,989) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
31.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16,057 vs −$9,219 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$374,354
Realized+$515,030
Unrealized+$37,187
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses29 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$2,715
Open positions36
Markets (closed)80 / 107
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$10,203
Trades / day1514.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 24¢ 52¢ $107,740 $235,291 +$127,551 (+118%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 81¢ $12,880 $32,755 +$19,875 (+154%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 34¢ 32¢ $25,588 $24,602 −$987 (-4%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 96¢ $9,353 $24,394 +$15,041 (+161%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 49¢ 50¢ $16,406 $16,573 +$167 (+1%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 46¢ $2,555 $9,141 +$6,585 (+258%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? No 43¢ 40¢ $7,695 $7,068 −$626 (-8%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Under 24¢ 86¢ $1,570 $5,627 +$4,057 (+258%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $4,758 $4,993 +$235 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $2,558 $2,532 −$26 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 70¢ $2,914 $2,469 −$446 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $1,588 $1,656 +$68 (+4%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,406 $1,456 +$50 (+4%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,232 $1,239 +$7 (+1%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 100¢ $881 $917 +$37 (+4%)
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 48¢ 82¢ $339 $577 +$238 (+70%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $547 $540 −$7 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: England 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 48¢ $452 $406 −$46 (-10%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 79¢ 80¢ $326 $328 +$2 (+0%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $219 $217 −$3 (-1%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 88¢ 54¢ $353 $215 −$138 (-39%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 48¢ 48¢ $198 $196 −$2 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $192 $190 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 94¢ $155 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 50¢ 49¢ $123 $120 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14,930 −$4,383 -29%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $845 +$34 +4%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $14,370 +$1,721 +12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 +$65 +365%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3,043 −$43 -1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1,959 +$766 +39%
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 23 $23 +$54 +233%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $50 +$34 +67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $82,284 −$81,634 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21,942 +$3,093 +14%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $309 +$85 +27%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $97 −$97 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16,473 −$16,211 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,826 +$85 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,989 +$845 +42%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $55 +$20 +36%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $39 +$133 +344%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $167 −$167 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19,442 −$8,453 -44%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $931 +$19 +2%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $151 +$172 +114%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $797 −$248 -31%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7,305 −$7,305 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $276,482 −$275,865 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $16,987 +$4,559 +27%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 13¢ $101 3m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $38 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $24 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $21 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $11 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $145 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $36 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $1 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $88 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $19 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $40 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $72 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $19 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $23 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $21 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $253 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $9 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $4 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $1 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $14 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $72 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $42 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $10 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $7 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $210 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $11 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $11 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $7 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $59 11m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 42¢ $4 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374,354.35 · official $368,040.66 · 3500 history records