Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b4f…d284 crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+8%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -5.5% -14.5% 29% 29% -21.0%
≤30d 69 -5.5% -14.5% 29% 29% -21.0%
≤90d 69 -5.5% -14.5% 29% 29% -21.0%
all 69 -5.5% -14.5% 29% 29% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 29% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 29% -28.6%
15% -30.1% 29% -35.5%
20% -37.0% 26% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$12 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$18 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$108 +508%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$35 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$30 +570%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$31 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$45 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records