Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b50…87fb sports 741 markets active 11h ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,267 (-3%) realized +$30 · open −$1,297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%269W / 467L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$3,187
14 days+$3,692
30 days+$1,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$3,981
other 35% −$4,636
crypto 10% −$384
finance 2% −$249
politics 2% −$138
weather 2% +$82
world 1% −$77
economics 1% −$323
tech 0% +$94
culture 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +10.3% -0.2% 49% 49% +33.3%
≤30d 87 +12.7% +1.9% 47% 47% +3.6%
≤90d 117 +1.5% -8.1% 42% 41% -4.4%
all 736 -6.6% -15.5% 37% 35% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 35% -10.5%
10% -23.6% 35% -19.0%
15% -30.9% 34% -26.9%
20% -37.7% 31% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$37 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$3,818
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1,297
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses269 / 467
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions5
Markets (closed)736 / 741
History coverage703d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 736 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $1,415 $1,215 −$200 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $1,000 $920 −$80 (-8%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $1,000 $783 −$217 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $900 $705 −$195 (-22%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $799 $195 −$604 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$3 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$92 +180%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$36 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$6 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$50 -49%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $198 +$118 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$35 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$83 +162%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$32 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$37 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$36 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$26 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,188 +$3,265 +149%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$76 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$110 +179%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$46 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$35 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $48 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $51 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 12h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $143 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 14h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $51 14h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 46¢ $49 26h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 46¢ $51 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $45 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $17 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $52 35h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 14¢ $10 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $227 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $97 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 58¢ $89 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $75 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $134 46h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $41 47h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,817.99 · official $3,817.99 (match) · 1675 history records