Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b52…1723 other 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%12W / 256L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$46
sports 23% −$30
politics 9% −$7
world 6% −$1
culture 6% −$9
crypto 6% −$6
economics 5% −$7
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 268 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses12 / 256
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)268 / 268
History coverage135d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 268 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $189 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $195 −$1 -1%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $655 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $215 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $748 −$2 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $240 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $239 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $169 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $211 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $265 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $76 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $274 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $177 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $349 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 23m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $44 4h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $44 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 9h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 11h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 11h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 14h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $45 15h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 17h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $45 18h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $45 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 24h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 25h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 26h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 28h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 31h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 33h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 34h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 36h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 40h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 41h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1474 history records