Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b52…8222 other 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%29W / 33L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$3
world 30% +$5
politics 11% −$2
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% −$2
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 62 -0.7% -10.1% 47% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.6% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses29 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage452d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $72 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $51 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $22 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $40 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $47 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $40 +$3 +9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $90 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $6 $0 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -25%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -10%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jun 19 $1 $0 -30%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +23%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05-1.09ºC in May 2025? Jun 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Kelemen Hunor? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 06 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 03 $23 $0 +1%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $15 6m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $30 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $42 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $4 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $50 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $30 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $15 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $1 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $7 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $44 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $48 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $48 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records