Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b55…98a2 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$250 (+11%) realized +$247 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%85W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$182
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +9.7% -0.7% 63% 55% -1.6%
≤30d 135 +9.7% -0.7% 63% 55% -1.6%
≤90d 135 +9.7% -0.7% 63% 55% -1.6%
all 135 +9.7% -0.7% 63% 55% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 55% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 47% -11.0%
15% -18.9% 39% -19.6%
20% -26.8% 33% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses85 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage7d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$19 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$29 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$5 +457%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $58 +$146 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.15 · official $13.15 (match) · 384 history records