Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b56…715e other 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53,617 (+10%) realized +$47,747 · open +$5,870
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate74%64W / 23L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$5,909per market
Trades / day205.5pace
Fees−$330est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$51,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22,386
7 days+$35,741
14 days+$50,287
30 days+$50,603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$13,900
other 38% +$48,892
crypto 4% −$1,207
finance 4% −$2,491
sports 3% −$2,080
economics 1% −$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +9.2% -1.2% 68% 30% +10.5%
≤30d 87 +8.6% -1.7% 74% 25% +1.5%
≤90d 87 +8.6% -1.7% 74% 25% +1.5%
all 87 +8.6% -1.7% 74% 25% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover205.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 25% +1.5%
10% -11.1% 16% -8.2%
15% ← realistic here -19.7% 13% -17.0%
20% -27.6% 11% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$7,150) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,712 vs −$2,564 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$51,223
Realized+$47,747
Unrealized+$5,870
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses64 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$330
Open positions8
Markets (closed)87 / 94
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$5,909
Trades / day205.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 51¢ 82¢ $10,150 $16,410 +$6,260 (+62%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 48¢ 48¢ $14,300 $14,550 +$250 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 78¢ 78¢ $7,800 $7,750 −$50 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 75¢ 74¢ $7,500 $7,450 −$50 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 80¢ $3,720 $3,180 −$540 (-15%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 96¢ $950 $955 +$5 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 93¢ 92¢ $930 $925 −$5 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16,850 +$23,150 +137%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $940 +$59 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8,300 +$11,700 +141%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,900 −$4,853 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $950 +$50 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $880 +$119 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,200 −$5,199 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $860 +$140 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $880 +$120 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9,350 +$160 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,900 +$25,100 +512%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,700 −$6,699 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,750 +$89 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,400 +$159 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6,400 −$6,400 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $10,216 −$3,682 -36%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8,350 +$260 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6,100 +$13,900 +228%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7,150 +$180 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,000 +$7,000 +233%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13,159 +$170 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $890 +$110 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $1,512 +$48 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $870 +$130 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10,209 +$1,229 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $6,900 −$6,900 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,400 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,263 −$4,203 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6,303 +$79 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $2,578 +$3 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,200 +$200 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8,200 +$270 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,784 +$18 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,120 −$1,916 -61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,450 +$123 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $4,943 +$459 +9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11,010 +$150 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $3,373 +$292 +9%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,130 +$70 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6,400 −$2,080 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $16,655 +$162 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $3,443 +$378 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,080 +$60 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $833 −$681 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $42,786 −$137 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2,820 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $7,500 2m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $7,800 48m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $5,500 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $128 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $19 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $95 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $108 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $17 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $874 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $114 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $19 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $556 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $77 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $39 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $11 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $22 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $33 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $33 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $93 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $55 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $55 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $218 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $22 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $55 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $46 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $33 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $26 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $55 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,222.53 · official $49,722.54 · 3500 history records