Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b56…3400 sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%7W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$3
politics 22% −$2
other 17% −$2
crypto 11% −$1
economics 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 192 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses7 / 185
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage169d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $153 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $130 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $72 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $41 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 11d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 19d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 19d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $39 26d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $39 26d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $39 38d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $39 39d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 93¢ $38 122d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 93¢ $38 122d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $34 122d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $34 122d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $34 122d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $34 122d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $3 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $36 122d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $3 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $36 122d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $35 122d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $39 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 122d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $37 122d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $38 122d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $39 122d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $39 122d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $37 122d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $38 122d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $34 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.26 · official $32.26 (match) · 605 history records