Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b5a…7070 crypto 590 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$83,962 (-45%) realized −$83,987 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate74%431W / 155L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Fees−$570est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$3,005
crypto 44% −$2,756
other 7% −$545
world 2% −$903
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.3% -20.6% 57% 57% -0.3%
≤30d 32 -4.5% -13.6% 69% 59% -10.5%
≤90d 586 -6.0% -14.9% 74% 45% -13.1%
all 586 -6.0% -14.9% 74% 45% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 45% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 21% -21.4%
15% -30.5% 9% -29.0%
20% -37.3% 5% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$193 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,035
Realized−$83,987
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses431 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$570
Open positions4
Markets (closed)586 / 590
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$313
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $402 $405 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $336 $338 +$2 (+1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ 76¢ $130 $151 +$21 (+16%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ 70¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,096 +$497 +45%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $334 −$7 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $302 +$97 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $412 +$87 +21%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $338 −$336 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $85 +$15 +18%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $501 −$501 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $415 +$84 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $215 −$215 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $204 +$46 +23%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Doosan Bears Jun 07 $60 −$33 -54%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $68 +$31 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $221 +$79 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5 Jun 06 $57 +$2 +3%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $148 +$52 +35%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $72 +$28 +40%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $87 +$13 +15%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 06 $199 +$218 +110%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 06 $64 −$42 -65%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $19 +$2 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 25 $17 +$3 +17%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $27 −$10 -38%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $23 +$4 +18%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 May 25 $18 +$5 +25%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5 May 24 $14 +$3 +24%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $14 +$1 +10%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $11 +$3 +23%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $8 +$3 +35%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 24 $7 +$1 +11%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5 May 17 $81 +$5 +6%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $73 +$8 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $69 +$3 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 17 $60 −$3 -5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,531 −$1,511 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner May 16 $1,310 +$250 +19%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears May 16 $214 +$40 +19%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5 May 16 $1,568 −$1,555 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 16 $622 −$621 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $231 +$1 +0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $1,572 +$562 +36%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $561 −$244 -44%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $918 +$222 +24%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 16 $707 +$109 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $509 +$98 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $314 −$313 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $232 +$17 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $406 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $338 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $143 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $131 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,592 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $327 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 82¢ $326 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $425 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $334 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $338 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $412 10h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 82¢ $51 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 82¢ $5 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 82¢ $10 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Samsung Lions 82¢ $16 13h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 85¢ $14 14h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 85¢ $16 14h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 85¢ $10 15h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 85¢ $10 15h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 85¢ $11 15h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 85¢ $11 15h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 85¢ $13 15h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $360 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $141 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $499 13d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 83¢ $232 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,035.00 · official $1,035.00 (match) · 3500 history records