Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b5f…16fb other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,495 (-2%) realized −$3,495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%36W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,041per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$23
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$76
other 36% +$5
sports 14% −$3,420
culture 4% −$7
world 3% −$18
economics 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 -6.7% -15.6% 6% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 104 -13.6% -21.9% 5% 1% -12.5%
all 158 -0.1% -9.7% 23% 9% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -11.4%
10% -18.3% 9% -19.9%
15% -26.2% 8% -27.6%
20% -33.4% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,624) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$36 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized−$3,495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses36 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)158 / 161
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,041
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $391 $391 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $344 $344 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $203 $204 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $350 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,375 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,070 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $62 −$62 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $66 +$59 +90%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,950 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,952 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $457 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $376 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $2,878 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $332 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $263 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $370 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $847 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,035 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,067 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,216 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,539 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $391 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $415 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $416 4h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $477 17h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $477 23h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $350 39h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $350 47h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $344 2d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $562 5d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $562 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $600 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $601 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $711 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $712 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $615 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $616 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $498 6d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $498 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $805 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $807 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $723 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $724 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $62 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $685 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $686 11d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $66 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $702 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $703 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.48 · official $938.48 (match) · 470 history records