Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b5f…bf9f crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-31%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 56% -37.1%
≤30d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 56% -37.1%
≤90d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 56% -37.1%
all 9 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 56% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 56% -37.1%
10% -20.3% 44% -43.1%
15% -28.0% 44% -48.6%
20% -35.1% 33% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$21 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records