Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b60…a55b world 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$62,119 (+29%) realized +$62,413 · open −$294
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%36W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2,175per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$56,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$7,534
14 days+$7,625
30 days+$7,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$14,964
politics 44% +$47,360
tech 3% −$149
other 2% −$410
sports 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -26.8% -33.7% 53% 40% +14.9%
≤30d 22 -21.0% -28.5% 64% 27% +11.4%
≤90d 48 -16.1% -24.1% 62% 23% +0.6%
all 54 -8.8% -17.5% 67% 26% +27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 26% +27.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 15% +15.4%
15% -32.6% 9% +4.2%
20% -39.2% 6% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,791 vs −$134 · ×13.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.67 per $1 lost it wins $26.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$56,078
Realized+$62,413
Unrealized−$294
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses36 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions44
Markets (closed)54 / 98
History coverage180d
Avg bet$2,175
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10,000 $10,011 +$11 (+0%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $6,573 $6,386 −$187 (-3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $4,900 $4,928 +$28 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,970 $3,014 +$44 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 72¢ 76¢ $2,720 $2,856 +$136 (+5%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,450 $2,529 +$79 (+3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,400 $2,439 +$39 (+2%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $2,227 $2,166 −$61 (-3%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 84¢ 85¢ $2,086 $2,099 +$12 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $2,000 $2,014 +$14 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1,479 $1,488 +$9 (+1%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,444 $1,455 +$11 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1,291 $1,312 +$20 (+2%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,013 +$13 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,001 +$1 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $920 $925 +$5 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $1,040 $913 −$127 (-12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 85¢ $800 $850 +$50 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $800 $831 +$31 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 65¢ 70¢ $700 $759 +$59 (+8%)
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $712 $717 +$5 (+1%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $621 $624 +$3 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $611 $557 −$54 (-9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $942 +$58 +6%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $2,487 +$105 +4%
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $206 −$23 -11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? Jun 21 $206 −$200 -97%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $3,032 +$797 +26%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $7,973 +$1,314 +16%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $2,975 +$1,194 +40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $6,598 +$3,873 +59%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 21 $1,600 +$744 +46%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,400 +$154 +11%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $583 +$43 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $500 +$48 +10%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1,000 +$48 +5%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 07 $2,000 +$207 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $1,000 +$15 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? May 25 $900 +$48 +5%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 23 $201 +$8 +4%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? May 23 $282 +$13 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $7,400 +$1,000 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $8,520 +$2,690 +32%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 19 $503 +$76 +15%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $232 −$224 -96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $221 −$176 -80%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $1,800 +$3,665 +204%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 09 $172 +$16 +10%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 08 $50,000 +$428 +1%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 02 $1,000 +$21 +2%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 01 $393 −$126 -32%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $1,990 +$9 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? Apr 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $1,165 −$71 -6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 21 $932 +$74 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $461 −$20 -4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 20 $1,971 +$71 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,900 +$90 +5%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 19 $15,000 +$98 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $563 −$20 -4%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 11 $1,633 −$277 -17%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $400 −$400 -100%
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31? Jan 16 $238 +$15 +6%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 19? Jan 16 $562 +$108 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $500 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $1,001 1h
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential el BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? BUY No 82¢ $12 1h
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $500 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $980 10h
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 11h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $396 11h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $4,900 18h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $12 25h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $300 31h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $115 35h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $8 35h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $4 35h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $31 36h
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $66 37h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $164 37h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $942 39h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $2 39h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 22¢ $114 40h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $49 41h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $21 46h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $4 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $58 2d
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $22 2d
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,077.74 · official $56,078.13 (match) · 1067 history records