Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b62…25a1 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,243 (+41%) realized +$4,259 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days+$3,250
14 days+$4,115
30 days+$4,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$4,154
other 31% +$21
world 1% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 46% +30.6%
≤30d 28 +11.5% +0.9% 50% 50% +37.9%
≤90d 28 +11.5% +0.9% 50% 50% +37.9%
all 28 +11.5% +0.9% 50% 50% +37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 50% +37.9%
10% -8.8% 50% +24.7%
15% -17.6% 46% +12.6%
20% -25.6% 36% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +89% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$412 vs −$118 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$2,335
Realized+$4,259
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions7
Markets (closed)28 / 35
History coverage24d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,000 $1,095 +$95 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $886 $777 −$109 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$91 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $593 +$680 +115%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 16 $525 −$384 -73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $1,299 +$367 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $780 −$780 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$121 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $76 +$116 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$84 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $254 +$137 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,232 +$1,858 +151%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,435 +$1,244 +87%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $51 −$8 -16%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $51 +$54 +106%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $371 +$781 +211%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $51 +$38 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $257 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $257 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $343 14h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 19h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $256 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 39h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $26 39h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 39h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 39h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $76 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $252 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 14¢ $154 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $66 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $415 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 64¢ $858 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $33 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 23¢ $111 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $77 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,335.39 · official $2,330.54 (match) · 204 history records