Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b66…e90a crypto 1024 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$250 (+0%) realized +$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%963W / 61L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,101
sports 4% +$303
other 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +1.7% -8.0% 92% 31% -1.7%
≤30d 50 -0.3% -9.8% 90% 30% -2.3%
≤90d 197 -2.7% -11.9% 93% 9% -7.9%
all 1024 -2.2% -11.5% 94% 6% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -11.4%
10% -20.0% 2% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 1% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$65 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses963 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1024 / 1024
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1024 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $101 +$25 +25%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $50 +$4 +8%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $201 +$18 +9%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$15 +14%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $100 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $406 +$16 +4%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $363 +$44 +12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $264 +$99 +38%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $223 +$41 +18%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $200 +$22 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $183 −$183 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $160 +$23 +15%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $155 +$5 +3%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $111 +$44 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $82 +$30 +36%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $60 +$22 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$16 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +3%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $50 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $50 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $55 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $54 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $52 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $50 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 4h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 5h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 7h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 7h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.00 · official $283.00 (match) · 3500 history records