Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b67…cd22 politics 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,645 (-2%) realized −$1,645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$41
other 32% −$439
sports 21% −$1,108
culture 5% −$74
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -18.6% -26.4% 7% 2% -11.9%
all 117 -8.9% -17.6% 15% 9% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 9% -11.2%
10% -25.5% 9% -19.7%
15% -32.7% 9% -27.4%
20% -39.3% 7% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,207) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$22 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized−$1,645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage125d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $537 $537 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,086 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $943 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $881 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,072 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $126 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $984 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,263 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $202 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,009 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $286 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $273 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $679 −$1 -0%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 05 $883 −$883 -100%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,025 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,114 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,278 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $2,033 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,148 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,430 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,748 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1,207 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $3,612 −$4 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $867 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2,628 −$3 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $939 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $453 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $454 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $497 6h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $498 8h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $475 29h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $476 30h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $466 47h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $466 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $537 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $769 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $769 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $864 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $866 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $862 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $864 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $839 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $840 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $855 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $857 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $942 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $943 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $754 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $755 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $758 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $759 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $809 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $810 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $590 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $537.27 · official $537.27 (match) · 405 history records