Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1B 0x1b68…2186 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$70 (+4%) realized +$75 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$120
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$38
sports 48% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.5% -27.2% 38% 25% -19.0%
≤30d 12 -15.4% -23.5% 42% 33% -17.6%
≤90d 12 -15.4% -23.5% 42% 33% -17.6%
all 12 -15.4% -23.5% 42% 33% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 33% -17.6%
10% -30.8% 25% -25.4%
15% -37.5% 17% -32.6%
20% -43.6% 17% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$55 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage13d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $125 $120 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $211 −$97 -46%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $211 +$70 +33%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $106 −$74 -70%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $53 −$6 -12%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $106 −$75 -71%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $292 +$22 +8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $110 +$74 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 −$35 -66%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$4 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $158 +$83 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $53 −$5 -10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$92 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $131 9m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $114 11m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $106 28m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $106 37m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $105 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $106 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $46 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $120 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $106 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 4h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 4h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $314 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $185 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $106 31h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $53 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $53 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $25 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $241 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $53 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $47 11d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 12d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $104 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.88 · official $121.93 · 35 history records