Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b6c…596b other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 716d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,094 (-22%) realized −$3,896 · open −$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$6,602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days−$1,097
14 days−$1,448
30 days−$1,448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,974
politics 8% −$239
world 7% −$1,384
sports 5% −$548
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.1% -23.1% 55% 36% -31.5%
≤30d 23 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 48% -25.5%
≤90d 24 -8.4% -17.1% 54% 46% -34.9%
all 33 -12.8% -21.1% 48% 42% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 42% -39.0%
10% -28.6% 33% -44.9%
15% -35.5% 27% -50.2%
20% -41.8% 27% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$363 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

716d coverage
Net worth$6,602
Realized−$3,896
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)33 / 47
History coverage716d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1,660 $1,650 −$10 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $1,378 $1,420 +$42 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $860 $675 −$185 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $520 $565 +$45 (+9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $484 $483 −$1 (-0%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $371 $458 +$87 (+24%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 86¢ $414 $379 −$35 (-8%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $257 $283 +$26 (+10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $268 $222 −$46 (-17%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $160 $174 +$14 (+9%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 36¢ $117 $110 −$8 (-6%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $116 $86 −$30 (-26%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $125 $62 −$62 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $71 $35 −$35 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $390 +$248 +64%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF Jun 21 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $659 −$130 -20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $880 +$120 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $469 −$465 -99%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $477 −$475 -100%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $410 +$590 +144%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $98 +$9 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $817 −$811 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$21 -16%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $471 −$460 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $367 +$216 +59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$98 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $371 +$122 +33%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $353 −$83 -24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $411 −$406 -99%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $445 −$445 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $247 +$141 +57%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $251 +$156 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $262 +$298 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $229 +$33 +14%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 10 $582 −$582 -100%
Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024? Nov 05 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Oct 16 $334 −$334 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $705 −$54 -8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $557 +$149 +27%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? Aug 16 $10 +$19 +194%
Netherlands vs. England - Who will advance? Jul 14 $11 +$8 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,668 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,291 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $160 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $324 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $638 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $65 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $24 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $529 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $163 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $119 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $40 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $48 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,602.05 · official $6,602.05 (match) · 190 history records