Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b6d…2f1a
crypto · 220 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,914 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,331 · open −$579
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized−$3,331
Unrealized−$579
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses63 / 150
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)213 / 220
History coverage161d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 213 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 33¢ 32¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $70 $19 −$51 (-73%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 3¢ 1¢ $59 $14 −$44 (-76%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 31¢ 0¢ $146 $2 −$143 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 56¢ 0¢ $340 $0 −$340 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Monte (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs Monte 11¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $187 +$8 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $506 −$20 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 25 $12 −$11 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $126 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 25 $69 −$22 -31%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 24 $45 −$43 -96%
Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - CCT May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 09 $47 −$45 -95%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 09 $622 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 21 $8 −$8 -93%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-03? Mar 25 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 25 $97 −$96 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 25 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 25 $84 −$34 -40%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship P Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Monte (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champion Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 25 $50 +$37 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 25 $55 −$25 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 25 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 25 $38 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 25 $30 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 25 $30 +$12 +40%
Counter-Strike: DashSkins vs Back to Back (BO3) - CCT South America S Mar 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 25 $30 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 25 $30 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 25 $85 −$84 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 25 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 25 $110 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 25 $30 +$32 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 25 $20 +$23 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 25 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 25 $40 −$39 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$1,259
world 9% −$596
sports 9% −$679
economics 7% −$692
politics 6% −$648
other 6% −$35
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $149 59m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $149 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 15¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 32¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $138 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 49¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $243 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $248 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $47 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 22¢ $4 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 43¢ $56 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $45 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 16d
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 18d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $35 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $7 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.2% +4.2% 67% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 14 -62.4% -66.0% 21% 14% -40.3%
≤90d 124 -30.4% -37.0% 31% 30% -44.1%
all 213 -27.6% -34.5% 30% 29% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 29% -40.8%
10% -40.8% 27% -46.5%
15% -46.5% 27% -51.7%
20% -51.7% 23% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.91 · official $139.91 · 605 history records