Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b6f…bdfd crypto 64 markets active 4h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,976 (-6%) realized −$3,384 · open −$592
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%20W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$975per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$53,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$818
crypto 9% −$266
world 5% −$2,595
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 38% -6.1%
≤30d 8 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 38% -6.1%
≤90d 11 -44.0% -49.4% 36% 27% -48.8%
all 54 -40.4% -46.1% 37% 30% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 30% -50.3%
10% -51.3% 28% -55.1%
15% -56.0% 24% -59.4%
20% -60.3% 19% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$134 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$53,404
Realized−$3,384
Unrealized−$592
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses20 / 34
Open positions10
Markets (closed)54 / 64
History coverage105d
Avg bet$975
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10,000 $12,070 +$2,070 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10,000 $11,460 +$1,460 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10,000 $8,190 −$1,810 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10,000 $6,985 −$3,015 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4,996 $5,326 +$330 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2,000 $2,358 +$358 (+18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,000 $2,120 +$120 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2,000 $1,927 −$73 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,000 $1,500 −$500 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $1,469 +$469 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$6 +55%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $110 +$114 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026? Mar 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 18 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 18 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 18 $37 −$36 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 17 $8 +$8 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 16 $8 −$5 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 12 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 08 $300 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 08 $200 +$227 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Mar 08 $78 +$122 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 06 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 06 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 06 $50 +$101 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 05 $100 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 05 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 05 $200 +$136 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 05 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 05 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 05 $300 +$203 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $27 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2,053 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,059 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,058 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2,058 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5,138 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10,271 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10,266 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10,252 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10,250 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 49¢ $110 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $49 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 84d
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $100 87d
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $100 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,403.75 · official $53,492.73 (match) · 128 history records