Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b73…52c9 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$570 (+5%) realized +$570 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$530
30 days+$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$143
other 38% +$413
crypto 8% +$1
politics 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +9.2% -1.2% 89% 22% +0.9%
≤90d 19 +4.5% -5.4% 95% 11% -4.0%
all 22 +4.0% -5.9% 95% 9% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 9% -4.7%
10% -14.9% 9% -13.9%
15% -23.2% 5% -22.2%
20% -30.7% 5% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×31.08 per $1 lost it wins $31.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$570
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage108d
Avg bet$480
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $591 +$1 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $691 +$394 +57%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $550 +$142 +26%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $569 −$19 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $555 +$12 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $538 +$4 +1%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 11 $206 $0 +0%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l Jun 11 $346 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $540 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8? May 09 $520 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026 May 01 $247 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $7.50? Apr 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $8.50? Apr 25 $450 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $546 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 09 $545 +$1 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 04 $540 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by March 31? Apr 01 $539 +$1 +0%
Raptors vs. Jazz Mar 24 $539 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 19 $530 +$8 +2%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $130? Mar 14 $530 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 100¢ $591 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $590 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $691 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $550 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 92¢ $23 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 92¢ $427 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 92¢ $100 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $240 10d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $328 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $555 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 99¢ $538 14d
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $206 31d
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l BUY No 100¢ $346 31d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 99¢ $540 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $520 52d
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026 BUY No 100¢ $247 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $300 61d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $96 67d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 20 above $8.50? BUY No 100¢ $450 67d
Wizards vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $546 76d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 100¢ $545 80d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 99¢ $540 85d
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $539 93d
Raptors vs. Jazz BUY Raptors 100¢ $539 95d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 98¢ $530 100d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $130? BUY No 100¢ $530 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records