Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b73…95c4 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$110
crypto 9% −$25
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-75.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -72.3% -75.0% 23% 8% -48.5%
≤30d 13 -72.3% -75.0% 23% 8% -48.5%
≤90d 13 -72.3% -75.0% 23% 8% -48.5%
all 13 -72.3% -75.0% 23% 8% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.0% 8% -48.5%
10% -77.4% 0% -53.4%
15% -79.6% 0% -57.9%
20% -81.6% 0% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $146 −$117 -80%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $136 +$11 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records