Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1B 0x1b76…0c37 other 15 markets active 4h ago coverage 593d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$22,281 (+29%) realized +$22,879 · open −$598
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$5,044per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$43,526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36,088
7 days+$17,725
14 days+$17,725
30 days+$17,725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$17,973
sports 7% +$4,229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +105.0% +85.5% 25% 25% +59.1%
≤30d 4 +105.0% +85.5% 25% 25% +59.1%
≤90d 4 +105.0% +85.5% 25% 25% +59.1%
all 10 +59.6% +44.4% 60% 60% +58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.4% 60% +58.1%
10% ← realistic here +30.6% 50% +43.0%
15% +18.0% 50% +29.2%
20% +6.4% 40% +16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
53.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,877 vs −$4,616 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$43,526
Realized+$22,879
Unrealized−$598
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage593d
Avg bet$5,044
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 30¢ 30¢ $13,782 $14,012 +$230 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $9,132 $9,360 +$228 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 19¢ 18¢ $8,630 $8,403 −$227 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 18¢ 18¢ $8,165 $7,938 −$227 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 11¢ 10¢ $4,415 $3,813 −$602 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5,011 +$36,087 +720%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 18 $5,478 −$5,339 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $5,142 −$5,010 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8,196 −$8,014 -98%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Feb 22 $4,246 +$4,012 +94%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Nov 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 17 $843 +$115 +14%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 17 $1,500 +$846 +56%
Magic vs. Pacers Nov 07 $435 +$195 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $822 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1,094 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1,079 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1,064 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $2 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $7 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $5 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $88 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $3 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,525.68 · official $43,525.68 (match) · 818 history records