Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b77…417e crypto 610 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$9,899 (+51%) realized +$9,899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%215W / 661L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day74.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,911
sports 4% +$593
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 345 -85.8% -87.2% 5% 5% -84.8%
≤30d 565 -56.1% -60.3% 18% 17% -71.0%
≤90d 876 -38.7% -44.5% 25% 24% -61.6%
all 876 -38.7% -44.5% 25% 24% -61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.5% 24% -61.6%
10% ← realistic here -49.8% 22% -65.2%
15% -54.7% 20% -68.6%
20% -59.1% 17% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$43 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$9,899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses215 / 661
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)876 / 610
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day74.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 876 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $195 −$195 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6PM ET Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.91 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records