Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b79…7cfe other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+31%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$7
other 36% +$1
politics 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 54% +22.3%
≤30d 13 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 54% +22.3%
≤90d 13 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 54% +22.3%
all 13 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 54% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 54% +22.3%
10% -7.4% 46% +10.6%
15% -16.4% 38% -0.1%
20% -24.6% 23% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +150%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 12m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the SELL Yes 65¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 67¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.28 · official $0.96 · 29 history records