Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1B 0x1b7a…7721 other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 502d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$239 (-23%) realized −$230 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$57
14 days+$57
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$139
world 25% −$91
sports 22% +$63
politics 7% −$32
crypto 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +11.9% +1.2% 39% 39% +8.6%
≤30d 33 +11.9% +1.2% 39% 39% +8.6%
≤90d 33 +11.9% +1.2% 39% 39% +8.6%
all 54 -6.5% -15.4% 31% 30% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 30% -31.4%
10% -23.5% 28% -38.0%
15% -30.9% 28% -44.0%
20% -37.7% 26% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

502d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$230
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)54 / 73
History coverage502d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -20%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$13 +123%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$16 +303%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$14 +277%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $5 +$20 +398%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 13 $5 +$11 +206%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$19 +194%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$19 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $139 −$119 -86%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $38 +$45 +117%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $20 −$4 -21%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $50 +$48 +96%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Green Day" or "Bad Bunny" this week? (February 8) Feb 09 $28 −$28 -100%
2025 February hottest on record? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of Feb 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Feb 12 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 02 $6 −$1 -22%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Feb 02 $6 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 4m
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $5 7m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 54¢ $5 15h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 15h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $9 15h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $5 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $4 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 40h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 40h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 40h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $23 40h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $14 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 91¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.13 · official $116.14 (match) · 152 history records