Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1B 0x1b7c…b8c7 world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$419 (-9%) realized −$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$6
14 days−$437
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$5
other 34% −$425
sports 11% −$10
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 0% -19.0%
≤90d 14 -10.6% -19.1% 36% 7% -18.3%
all 14 -10.6% -19.1% 36% 7% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 7% -18.3%
10% -26.9% 7% -26.1%
15% -34.0% 7% -33.2%
20% -40.4% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$74 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage92d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $390 $390 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 24 $394 −$9 -2%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $301 +$3 +1%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 19 $299 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 13 $471 +$34 +7%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 13 $475 −$5 -1%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $456 −$455 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $460 −$5 -1%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $483 +$17 +4%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $468 +$21 +4%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 03 $431 −$4 -1%
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) Apr 20 $37 −$37 -100%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Valorant: Mir Gaming vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Apr 02 $26 +$10 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $390 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL Yes 92¢ $386 1h
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 94¢ $394 3h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $304 3d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $301 4d
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL No 92¢ $299 4d
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY No 92¢ $299 5d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $471 10d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $470 10d
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $475 10d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 97¢ $456 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $455 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $460 13d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $483 22d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $489 22d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $468 22d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success SELL Yes 59¢ $35 32d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success SELL Yes 59¢ $24 32d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success BUY Yes 59¢ $59 32d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success SELL Yes 59¢ $58 32d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success BUY Yes 59¢ $59 32d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 97¢ $427 52d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $333 54d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $98 54d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Kayserispor 4¢ $20 64d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Kayserispor 4¢ $18 64d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 65d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 65d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 65d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.12 · official $390.12 (match) · 35 history records