Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b7d…e31c crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,434 (-15%) realized −$4,434 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%42W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 142d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$6,502
world 5% −$1,547
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -73.2% -75.7% 9% 9% -78.2%
≤30d 11 -73.2% -75.7% 9% 9% -78.2%
≤90d 11 -73.2% -75.7% 9% 9% -78.2%
all 154 -38.3% -44.2% 27% 26% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 26% -36.9%
10% -49.5% 25% -43.0%
15% -54.4% 22% -48.5%
20% -58.9% 19% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$141 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,434
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses42 / 112
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage142d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $231 −$220 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $70 −$20 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $300 −$191 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 24 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 24 $100 −$44 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 24 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 24 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 23 $115 −$49 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 23 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 23 $120 −$69 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 23 $140 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 23 $200 −$197 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 23 $300 +$208 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 23 $800 −$796 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 22 $192 −$189 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 22 $150 −$50 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 22 $400 −$296 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 22 $200 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 22 $400 +$93 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 22 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 22 $50 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 22 $250 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 22 $200 −$197 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 22 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 22 $400 −$198 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 22 $100 −$59 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 22 $300 +$427 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 22 $300 −$197 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 22 $100 −$86 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 22 $50 +$92 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 22 $180 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 22 $120 +$154 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 22 $50 +$75 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 22 $50 −$42 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 22 $100 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $109 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $14 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $30 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $20 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 554 history records