Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b7d…cf87 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$2
other 24% −$1
politics 10% $0
economics 10% +$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 5% −$1
sports 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 27% 9% -9.8%
all 47 -2.0% -11.3% 26% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage324d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $103 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $45 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $57 −$3 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 02 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 01 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 31 $62 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $54 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $56 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $56 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $2 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $65 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $65 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $66 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $67 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $47 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.23 · official $34.23 (match) · 155 history records