Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1B
0x1b7d…b5d4
crypto · 89 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$576 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$515 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$1,888
Realized−$515
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses47 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)78 / 89
History coverage193d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 11 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$21
14 days−$189
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $840 $825 −$15 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $590 $585 −$5 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 86¢ 88¢ $172 $176 +$4 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 71¢ 79¢ $142 $158 +$16 (+11%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 250? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will the announcers say "Nice Jab" or "Good Jab" 3+ times during UFC 250? Yes 94¢ 73¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-22%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 87¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will the announcers say "UFC History" during UFC 250? Yes 83¢ 48¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-42%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 41¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 50¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 49¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 45¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 38¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 44¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? No 64¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 50¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 49¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,151 −$5 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $85 −$26 -30%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $210 −$25 -12%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $175 +$9 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 10 $250 +$15 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $41 +$2 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 08 $1,246 −$5 -0%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Jun 07 $284 +$26 +9%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 06 $277 +$48 +17%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $351 −$46 -13%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $138 −$20 -15%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $715 −$88 -12%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang May 31 $581 −$40 -7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $384 −$62 -16%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange May 30 $5 −$2 -42%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $296 +$1 +0%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 30 $169 +$4 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $286 +$19 +7%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 28 $400 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 25 $883 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 08 $900 +$4 +0%
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? May 08 $534 +$18 +3%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? May 07 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 07 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Apr 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Apr 26 $320 +$12 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 24 $435 +$60 +14%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Apr 19 $1,858 +$544 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 18 $1,083 +$23 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 01 $50 +$17 +33%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $300 +$5 +2%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $680 +$31 +4%
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $500 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 25 $300 +$30 +10%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $1,310 +$29 +2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $600 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 06 $127 +$10 +8%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 06 $498 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 28 $482 +$15 +3%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Feb 17 $575 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 14 $14 +$25 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 13 $48 +$52 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 30% −$98
crypto 16% +$305
other 15% −$720
economics 14% +$73
politics 13% −$115
tech 7% −$35
finance 4% +$53
sports 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 25 BUY Yes 95¢ $28 1h
Will the announcers say "UFC History" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 1h
Will the announcers say "Nice Jab" or "Good Jab" 3+ times during UFC 2 BUY Yes 94¢ $16 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 96¢ $1,137 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 95¢ $9 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 96¢ $143 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 96¢ $239 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 96¢ $238 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 96¢ $338 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 96¢ $193 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $24 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $0 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No $35 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No $82 15h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No $3 15h
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $516 23h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $185 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 27h
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 27h
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 33h
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 15% -9.9%
≤30d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 9% -11.6%
≤90d 39 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 13% -6.6%
all 78 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 15% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 15% -10.8%
10% -22.4% 10% -19.3%
15% -29.9% 8% -27.1%
20% -36.8% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,888.10 · official $1,888.10 (match) · 683 history records