Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b87…4fb6 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-28%) realized −$357 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$100
finance 25% −$332
other 8% −$26
tech 2% −$15
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -39.7% -45.5% 33% 31% -48.5%
≤30d 36 -39.7% -45.5% 33% 31% -48.5%
≤90d 36 -39.7% -45.5% 33% 31% -48.5%
all 36 -39.7% -45.5% 33% 31% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.5% 31% -48.5%
10% ← realistic here -50.7% 25% -53.4%
15% -55.4% 25% -57.9%
20% -59.8% 19% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$357
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $90 $84 −$6 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 58¢ 98¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 50¢ 2¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $160 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$35 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$26 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$30 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $120 −$115 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $18 −$15 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $105 −$101 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $24 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $29 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $29 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $62 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.73 · official $130.77 · 111 history records