Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:37:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b8a…1dae other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 71L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$36
politics 18% −$3
world 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
sports 4% −$14
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.5% 23% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 77 -5.0% -14.1% 8% 3% -9.8%
all 77 -5.0% -14.1% 8% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 3% -9.8%
10% -22.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage81d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $184 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $321 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $336 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 15 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $279 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $553 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $260 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $271 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 03 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $275 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $281 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $263 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $262 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $288 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $290 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $284 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $294 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $293 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $574 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $184 47h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 11d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $49 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 21d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 22d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 23d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $55 23d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $55 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $103 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 27d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 27d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 28d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 28d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $4 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $4 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $2 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 29d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 30d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $34 30d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $270 33d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $271 33d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $286 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.14 · official $54.14 (match) · 216 history records