Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1B 0x1b8b…7293 crypto 430 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,764 (+57%) realized +$21,766 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%207W / 217L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$439
sports 2% +$15
other 2% +$147
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -9.0% -17.6% 47% 45% -14.6%
≤30d 172 -3.5% -12.7% 47% 46% -18.2%
≤90d 424 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 47% -8.1%
all 424 +1.6% -8.1% 49% 47% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 47% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 46% -16.9%
15% -24.9% 43% -24.9%
20% -32.3% 38% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$81 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$21,766
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses207 / 217
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)424 / 430
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$218 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $74 −$70 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $18 +$32 +172%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36 +$24 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $85 +$115 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$66 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$46 +148%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$19 +62%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$58 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$35 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$26 -83%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$68 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 22m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Australia: BUY 9¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $36 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 28¢ $17 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $19 24h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $18 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $49 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $29 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.43 · official $292.45 · 3500 history records