Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1B 0x1b8c…18ab politics 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,370 (-1%) realized −$1,370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,049per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$16
30 days−$789
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$720
politics 39% −$61
sports 13% −$557
world 4% −$43
culture 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -3.9% -13.1% 8% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 87 -14.3% -22.5% 8% 3% -11.2%
all 122 -2.6% -11.8% 16% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 11% -10.5%
10% -20.3% 11% -19.1%
15% -28.0% 10% -26.9%
20% -35.0% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,540) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized−$1,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,049
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $561 $562 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $454 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,179 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,869 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $857 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $877 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,754 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $80 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 04 $112 $0 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $244 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4,254 −$4 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,960 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 22 $755 −$755 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 09 $985 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $936 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,470 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,791 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,777 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $946 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $456 +$1 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $4,202 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $3,260 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,827 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $453 57m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $454 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $464 6h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $465 8h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $468 31h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $469 33h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $449 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $449 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $561 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $851 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $852 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $862 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $863 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $855 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $857 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $865 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $866 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $840 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $841 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $830 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $831 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $876 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $877 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $634 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $635 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $802 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $803 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $824 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $825 16d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $744 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.65 · official $561.65 (match) · 430 history records