Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b8e…f754 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$203 (-17%) realized −$173 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$253
world 11% −$30
sports 8% +$23
crypto 2% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -32.4% -38.9% 33% 33% -31.0%
≤30d 15 -32.4% -38.9% 33% 33% -31.0%
≤90d 15 -32.4% -38.9% 33% 33% -31.0%
all 15 -32.4% -38.9% 33% 33% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 33% -31.0%
10% -44.7% 33% -37.6%
15% -50.0% 27% -43.6%
20% -54.9% 27% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$56 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $127 $97 −$30 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$38 -68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 +$5 +140%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$87 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$37 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $228 +$141 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $85 +$24 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $149 −$147 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $148 −$148 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $129 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $35 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $17 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 41¢ $3 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $5 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $228 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $85 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $113 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $140 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.20 · official $97.20 (match) · 30 history records