Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1B 0x1b8f…cca7 sports 310 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$372 (-0%) realized −$210 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%106W / 201L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$768per market
Trades / day83.3pace
Fees−$4,275est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$4,993
other 1% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -5.0% -14.0% 32% 32% -0.6%
≤30d 307 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 35% -11.5%
≤90d 307 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 35% -11.5%
all 307 -1.1% -10.5% 35% 35% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 35% -11.5%
10% -19.1% 34% -19.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.9% 34% -27.7%
20% -34.1% 34% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,019) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,209 vs −$662 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$3,608
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses106 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$4,275
Open positions3
Markets (closed)307 / 310
History coverage28d
Avg bet$768
Trades / day83.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 46¢ 45¢ $1,610 $1,575 −$35 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 36¢ $1,490 $1,372 −$118 (-8%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 38¢ 38¢ $670 $662 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1,560 +$1,440 +92%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $240 −$236 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,097 −$1,090 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $842 −$837 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $430 +$1,570 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $980 +$1,020 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $420 −$420 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,792 −$74 -4%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $734 −$720 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,891 −$1,869 -99%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $660 +$1,340 +203%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1,378 +$1,392 +101%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $725 −$713 -98%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $765 −$15 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $935 −$920 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,771 +$2,593 +146%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $688 −$678 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $1,119 −$1,115 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $2,643 −$1,598 -60%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1,711 −$211 -12%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $495 +$521 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $1,576 +$1,469 +93%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $515 +$500 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $981 −$964 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $701 −$690 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $257 −$250 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $912 −$912 -100%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $1,509 −$1,506 -100%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1,636 −$1,625 -99%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $520 −$520 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $875 −$860 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1,880 +$2,142 +114%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $477 +$523 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $2,515 +$2,905 +116%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $184 −$180 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $306 +$2,548 +832%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $440 −$440 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 07 $1,775 −$1,749 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $1,335 −$1,312 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $382 −$382 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $821 −$810 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $489 +$511 +104%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $65 −$64 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $940 +$1,060 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $2 5m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $4 5m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $6 6m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $12 7m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $3 9m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $6 10m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $1 12m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 38¢ $636 12m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $814 26m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $2 27m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $2 27m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $107 27m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $51 27m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $371 27m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $153 27m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $3 27m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $1,560 21h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $31 40h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $29 40h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $24 40h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $56 40h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $48 40h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 4¢ $1 40h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 4¢ $51 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $284 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $1 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $72 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,608.43 · official $3,626.07 (match) · 2517 history records