Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1B 0x1b90…8cdc other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,275 (-8%) realized −$5,719 · open +$1,444
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 42L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$644per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$17,364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,580
14 days+$1,580
30 days+$1,553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$3,414
sports 19% +$1,723
crypto 13% +$3,202
culture 12% −$2,650
politics 6% −$126
economics 6% −$1,723
world 3% −$1,352
weather 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +494.2% +437.6% 100% 100% +437.6%
≤30d 4 +122.9% +101.7% 25% 25% +32.2%
≤90d 25 -13.8% -22.0% 28% 28% -14.1%
all 60 -18.2% -26.0% 30% 30% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 30% -24.4%
10% -33.1% 28% -31.6%
15% -39.5% 25% -38.2%
20% -45.5% 22% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$563) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$472 vs −$355 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$17,364
Realized−$5,719
Unrealized+$1,444
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions21
Markets (closed)60 / 83
History coverage210d
Avg bet$644
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 72¢ $1,482 $3,118 +$1,636 (+110%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 84¢ $1,675 $2,535 +$860 (+51%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,800 $2,010 +$210 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,746 $1,502 −$244 (-14%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,275 −$225 (-15%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,238 −$262 (-18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $996 $1,204 +$208 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,000 $1,117 +$117 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $1,028 −$172 (-14%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $660 $605 −$55 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $750 $594 −$156 (-21%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $417 −$83 (-17%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $750 $375 −$375 (-50%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $79 $80 +$2 (+2%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $63 $58 −$4 (-7%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $48 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 11¢ $11 $2 −$10 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $320 +$1,580 +494%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,045 −$15 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,000 −$12 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,000 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 May 19 $364 −$360 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 May 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 May 14 $333 −$330 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $31 +$69 +222%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 May 14 $405 +$322 +80%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 13 $563 +$337 +60%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 13 $151 +$249 +165%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $1,340 +$599 +45%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 08 $2,006 −$1,990 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 29 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,000 +$111 +11%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $700 −$433 -62%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $850 −$568 -67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 04 $300 +$262 +88%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Feb 03 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Feb 02 $722 +$578 +80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 29 $140 +$46 +33%
Magic vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5 Jan 29 $3,944 $0 +0%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 22 $200 −$28 -14%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 20 $1,710 −$1,408 -82%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $144 +$56 +39%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Jan 13 $250 +$361 +144%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 13 $3,000 −$1,723 -57%
Spread: Eagles (-6.5) Jan 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5 Jan 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting A Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Gol Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons Dec 30 $400 −$400 -100%
Pacers vs. Celtics Dec 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5) Dec 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Hornets vs. Pistons Dec 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $26 1h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $49 1h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $8 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $60 1h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $65 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 44¢ $915 3d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 61¢ $16 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $679 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $772 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 13d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $456 13d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $570 13d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $294 13d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,251 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,544 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $771 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,233 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,743 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,845 13d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $278 29d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $159 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,364.20 · official $17,364.20 (match) · 315 history records