Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1B 0x1b92…dc31 crypto 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39 (-1%) realized −$70 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$262
14 days−$343
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$214
crypto 31% +$220
politics 5% +$6
sports 3% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.8% -27.4% 67% 33% -48.5%
≤30d 23 +12.8% +2.0% 70% 65% -13.9%
≤90d 23 +12.8% +2.0% 70% 65% -13.9%
all 23 +12.8% +2.0% 70% 65% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 65% -13.9%
10% -7.7% 61% -22.1%
15% -16.6% 39% -29.6%
20% -24.8% 17% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$72 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2,229
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage18d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2,000 $2,025 +$25 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $308 −$306 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $202 +$6 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $66 +$27 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +124%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $102 −$9 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $102 +$32 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $391 −$51 -13%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$11 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$15 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $201 +$63 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $101 +$28 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $199 +$65 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 +$12 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $42 +$16 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $41 +$17 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $39 +$10 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $308 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $107 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 8d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 79¢ $101 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 9d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,210 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 12d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? SELL No 19¢ $6 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY No 32¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 14d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? SELL No 73¢ $93 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 77¢ $102 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 92¢ $101 16d
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY GAM Esports 65¢ $20 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $101 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 55¢ $232 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 67¢ $100 17d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 82¢ $101 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 66¢ $87 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,228.82 · official $2,228.82 (match) · 62 history records