Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1B 0x1b92…f317 crypto 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (462 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$267 (+5%) realized +$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%51W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day462.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$176
other 8% +$161
sports 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (462 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 40% -10.2%
≤30d 99 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 40% -10.2%
≤90d 99 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 40% -10.2%
all 99 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 40% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover462.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 40% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 27% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 24% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 19% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses51 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)99 / 106
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day462.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 1¢ 50¢ $1 $51 +$50 (+4948%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 35¢ 50¢ $26 $37 +$11 (+44%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 55¢ 20¢ $100 $36 −$64 (-64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 29¢ 50¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $84 −$63 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$17 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $195 −$27 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $94 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$27 -84%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$118 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$43 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $80 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$42 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$15 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $147 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $86 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $73 −$72 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$23 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 21 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $58 −$23 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $216 −$209 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $161 −$112 -69%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $17 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.13 · official $162.13 (match) · 684 history records